ITC Limited — Equity Research & Valuation
An independent analysis of ITC combining fundamental research, DCF, sum-of-the-parts valuation, relative valuation and exploratory econometrics.
Valuation reference date: 9 September 2026 · Currency: Indian rupees per share
Valuation cross-check
₹ per share · model as of 9 Sep 2026
Overview
The project evaluates ITC as a diversified Indian consumer business with a dominant cigarette franchise, growing FMCG operations, agriculture and paper businesses, a stake in ITC Hotels, and a strong net-cash position.
Valuation approach
I used three methods as cross-checks: a five-year FCFF DCF, a segment-based sum-of-the-parts valuation, and a forward P/E cross-check. The resulting blended target is approximately ₹372 per share against a reference price of ₹263.50, implying 41% upside before dividends.
Operating case
The model builds revenue from ₹89,913 crore in FY26A to ₹117,500 crore in FY31E and values the operating businesses separately from net cash and the holding in ITC Hotels. This makes the contribution of each segment and assumption visible rather than relying on a single consolidated multiple.
Econometric work
The accompanying regression uses 65 monthly observations from April 2021 to September 2026 to examine ITC returns alongside RBI repo-rate changes and NIFTY returns. The analysis is exploratory and should not be interpreted as causal.
Sources & reproducibility
- ITC FY2026 consolidated results, FY2024 annual report and Q1 FY27 materials.
- Reserve Bank of India policy-rate data.
- ITC and NIFTY price series documented in the regression dataset.
- Peer and market-cap references recorded in the model’s source notes.
The PDF explains the thesis and risks; the Excel model exposes the valuation mechanics; the R script and CSV reproduce the regression.
Disclosure: Independent academic work for educational purposes. This is not investment advice. Forecasts and valuations are sensitive to assumptions and the reference date above.