Research & analysis.

The work tests the transaction’s pricing and strategic logic while avoiding unsupported sponsor-return claims. OCS FY2025 and Mitie FY2026 operating metrics are kept on separate periods, and the financing model uses an explicit balanced scenario rather than inferring the actual debt draw.

Illustrative £50m, £100m and £150m run-rate synergy cases are phased over three years with implementation costs included.

The workbook is formula-driven, reconciles segment revenue and EBIT into the DCF, and includes an explicit liquid-financial-assets bridge and valuation sensitivity.

The regression uses 64 supplied monthly ITC/NIFTY return observations from May 2021 to August 2026 with RBI policy-change months aligned to published RBI dates and excluding the incomplete September 2026 observation. The supplied return series itself is not independently certified.

The model keeps £3.25bn of new day-one debt separate from reinstated legacy debt, uses reported RCV of £21.893bn, and labels the gearing schedule as debt capacity rather than an integrated debt forecast.

A present-value sensitivity illustrates why 70% retained Class A principal is not automatically 70% economic recovery.